Opinion (OPN)

Small update on @opinionlabsxyz

OPN got a new utility - Disputes

Now you can challenge any market outcome by staking OPN

If you’re right, you get rewarded, if not you lose your stake

Stake depends on market size, and only one dispute is allowed per market

Interesting move for fairness and accountability

What do you think about this, guys?

As long as I make a profit this lifetime,
it's like repaying the debts from the previous life.

Got trapped by $OPN and felt foolish. Checked Dune; the trading volume in the past few days is barely second place (though still far behind Polymarket's scale), but daily active users have dropped to just three to five hundred. Is it that Asian users aren't comfortable with prediction markets, or that all Asian prediction market participants only use Polymarket? 🤔

I saw on @opinionlabsxyz that a 10% arbitrage opportunity hasn't been taken by anyone (of course, the settlement date being the end of the year is also an issue). Currently, the probability that Polymarket will issue a token larger than 5B is only 47% (it's not that people are pessimistic about this market cap; it's that a token not issued by year-end will be resolved as No), while the probability of issuing a token by year-end is 57%.

In other words, buying >5B and a year-end non-issuance only costs 47c + 43c = 90c, which guarantees receiving $1 by year-end.

A 10% return over 9 months translates to roughly a 13% annualized yield.

Of course, the black swan would be Polymarket issuing a token this year but failing to reach 5B, which would be a total loss... Can't be, right? That seems unlikely?! 😱