First, the conclusion: CRCL can be bought.
But you have to wait.
Wait until no one is discussing this token.
Wait until no one is discussing the crypto market.
Just wait.
If you can't accurately judge the timing and want to be overly cautious, then lower the expected price a bit.
I don't want to discuss moats or similar concepts.
I only look at a few points.
Whether the price is attractive. (How low can it fall, how high can it rise?)
(Reward-to-risk ratio)
If the market comes, does it have the characteristics to generate FOMO sentiment?
(Rebound strength)

Circle Internet Group (Derivatives) (CRCL)
Circle Internet Group (Derivatives) CRCL Price History USD
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: Is Circle really going bust 🥲
Open USD. With the emergence of $OUSD
Yesterday Circle experienced a sharp drop.
It might be appropriate to call it a crash.
Since it fell more than 10% negative.
Simply summarizing the reason for the crash
A super‑large whale‑scale stablecoin company has emerged in the US stablecoin market that Circle dominates.
Ultimately, the emergence of a new stablecoin
- How much of a hit it will deal to Circle.
- How much of the market pie it will take away.
This part is crucial.
First, because the price has already plummeted, the market appears to view it as a clear negative.
But this wasn't something that was overlooked
Since Circle also occupies a sizable portion of my crypto portfolio,
I have considered the area where new stablecoin companies are emerging.
My thoughts when buying were
1. Even if a new stablecoin arrives, it won’t definitively snatch away the pie that $USDC and $USDT currently hold.
2. Even if we lose some share, as the "stablecoin" sector itself expands dramatically, the loss is acceptable.
3. $CRCL’s compliance with U.S. regulations likely makes its trustworthiness the best among stablecoins.
4. Stablecoin trading is essential for AI‑driven agent trading, and that trade is already dominated by $USDC.
5. Even if the stablecoin side gets squeezed, in a Bitcoin rebound or bull market, Circle would likely deliver better performance.
// I had considered these conditions,
The American banking‑type companies I was constantly questioning
: Will they simply hand the stablecoin dominance over to Circle?
That question has finally been resolved.
Especially, there are a huge number of companies participating in Open USD; everyone seems to know about it.
: Stablecoins << This thing cannot be blocked.
It’s a honey pot.
Let Circle have this honey pot all to itself?
Makes no sense.
We absolutely have to get a share too
That’s the only way.
The stablecoin market will continue to grow year after year,
and the more AI agents develop, the more it will be used.
So even if we split the stablecoin pie,
I think Circle’s position will still remain strong.
Of course, as strong as we hoped…
It's back to the $CRCL lunch-foolish indicator phase. After a recent earnings report showed great performance (after all, it's a bull market performance in the crypto world), it quickly entered the impressive lunch phase. But will there be another earnings report rescue? To bet on a reversal, it's best to wait for the crypto market bottom.
Price Prediction
When is a good time to buy CRCL? Should I buy or sell CRCL now?
Beacon Prediction
Probabilistic Price Forecast (Next 24 Hours)This prediction is an experimental technical product and is provided for reference purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Unexpected real-world events may significantly impact market behavior. Traders should make decisions with caution.
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