Lighter (LIT)

New Episode with @satoshiheist We discuss: - Lighter Bull Case and Upcoming Catalysts - Buying the Crypto Bottom - Betting on a Mag7 Rebound 2:32 - Prof. Satoshi's intro and TradFi background 4:12 - Right valuation frameworks 5:40 - Is it fair to apply revenue + buybacks to every crypto protocol? 9:35 - Lighter buying back 6% of circulating supply 13:10 - Zero-fees is still a game changer 14:25 - Being among the first 50 users on Lighter 17:15 - Why LIT is undervalued 22:30 - Robinhood comparison in early stages and attracting large capital accounts 26:13 - Lighter's next big catalyst 30:15 - RWA liquidity will explode on Lighter 33:15 - Thoughts on Saylor and MSTR 35:00 - Q3 is for DCAing 37:12 - Bounce play early July 46:15 - Read on equities and the AI trade 50:10 - Market testing the new FED chair 52:33 - Crypto options impact on market structure 58:21 - Recovering from big losses 63:43 - #1 advice for traders

I ran 500,000 Monte Carlo paths to price what that capture is worth to LIT by end-2027. The chain is simple and it is the same one from the buyback piece: captured capital generates volume, volume generates revenue, 100% of revenue buys back LIT, and the buyback plus the multiple sets the price. The inputs are ranges, not guesses dressed as facts. Sector agentic capital from 3 to 70 billion. A regulatory-clarity gate that fires roughly 60 to 70% of the time and unlocks 2 to 36 billion in compliant flow. Lighter's capture of each, sampled across a bull case where verifiability converts and a bear case where it does not. Revenue yield of 1 to 5% on committed capital. A forward price-to-sales multiple from single digits in the bear to the low forties in the bull. Circulating supply around 360 million at horizon, after the December 2026 unlocks net of buyback accumulation.

$LIT Thursday, July 2 at 10:30 AM ET for a Q2-end investor call Will feature an update from founder @vnovakovski and a Q&A session

UPDATE: $LIT is quietly becoming one of crypto's biggest surprise performers. The token is up 25% this week, while most of the market has barely moved. Here's what's driving it: • Over $50M in 24-hour trading volume. • 100% of protocol trading fees are used to buy back $LIT from the open market. • Around 10 million $LIT (≈4% of circulating supply) has already been bought back. • Growing adoption, new product launches, and listings on major exchanges are adding momentum. Can the buyback engine keep fueling the rally, or will the December 2026 token unlocks slow things down? $LIT is definitely a token worth watching!