Fragmetric (FRAG)

This chart runs through March 31, 2026, so marked to current prices.

95% being underwater in this environment isn't surprising, the whole market is there.

But the FDV collapse on the worst performers is brutal:
→ ALMANAK launched at $90M FDV, now at ~$2.2M, 97.5% drawdown
→ FRAG launched at $125M FDV, now under $2M, 98%+ gone

Retail wasn't getting early access, they were buying exit liquidity.

The valuation was never justified to begin with, weak product-market fit priced as if it had already won.

MetaDAO being the standout makes sense.
High float, fair entry, governance that actually meant something to holders. The structure was just different.

Ignas's conclusion is the right one, lower launch valuations and real token ownership rights. Until that becomes the baseline, this chart just repeats with different ticker names.

3 of the best performers in the top 5 launched on @MetaDAOProject.

The 3 worst performers launched on @legiondotcc.

so is that it? Have futarchy and ownership won while the rest is trash?

--> The truth is that the main difference between these ICOs is the FDV at launch. Not necessarily futarchy or ownership.

FRAG, SKATE, and ALMANAK (the worst performers) all launched with a low float and a +$50M FDV.

Retail buyers on Legion bought at a very high price. And a high FDV at launch limited the upside tremendously = doomed chart and holders are cooked.

On the other hand, the 3 best performers on MetaDAO (Omnipair, Avici, and Umbra) all launched with a sub-$10M FDV.

➝ Ranger launched at a +$17M FDV (not 100% sure of the exact figure) and saw a buyback proposal within 24 hours of the TGE because it traded below NAV = clear FDV punishment.

➝ The same happened with P2P. There was a lack of bids at a +$15M FDV.

The market has changed in recent years, and retail investors are done being extracted.

Proph3t, in his latest article, acknowledged that MetaDAO’s greatest successes were those that didn't raise too much (implying a reasonable FDV).

This is the way. Looking forward to the next ICO on MetaDAO.

. @fantasy_top_ pushing prediction markets feels like a natural next step, not a gimmick.

Instead of just numbers, they’re opening markets around people, moments, and culture on X. The kind of things everyone already has opinions on, but never had a clean way to express onchain.

The mechanics are thoughtful too. Trades run on FRAG without inflating supply, fees flow into burns after the treasury is made whole, and losses don’t get patched by emissions. That’s a detail most people will miss, but it matters.

Curious to see what kinds of markets actually emerge once people start using it. @ParallelAiRev