MSTR (MSTR)

$MSTR stabilized at $85.73 Huge volume coming in. Who is buying all this blood bath? Big gap above that will get filled. $82 buy announced on the 26th is still in profit. https://t.co/SmkpRz7Bvw

I genuinely think that if $MSTR doesn't hold this purple zone, it could head down to the 200 month SMA at $50. This has to be one of the only stocks in the market is on track to hit the 200sma on a monthly chart 😂 https://t.co/imxwpOeDPi

Wall Street confidence in Strategy ($MSTR) is crashing fast! https://t.co/mOB0f3XY65

Whether you like it or not, but these are the ranges that you'd be looking to accumulate a position on $MSTR, if you'd want to. Why? Simply based on TA, and the fact that it's copy/pasting previous cycle. Main core thesis is that we're relatively close to a potential bottom on Bitcoin and that would then mean that we're likely going to be bottoming with MSTR too. During bull markets, this particular asset tends to overperform vs. Bitcoin, so if you're looking for a leveraged bet on Bitcoin, this is the one and these are the ranges to look for.

This is why I said it won’t last long, mNAV above 1 means they likely to sell to raise more capital. Meaning $MSTR goes down. $50 has been the target since last year. https://t.co/uLbDdd1LMI

According to Bitget market data, US crypto stocks opened lower across the board: MSTR down 8.11%, around $85; COIN down 4.06%, around $146; CRCL down 3.86%, around $73. https://t.co/X2PRM39uKA

I read Strategy's $MSTR Digital Credit Capital Framework. Shareholders can breath a sigh of relief as the announcement directly tackled the pain points that had been festering especially around: - $STRC trading well below par - Dividend coverage worries - The sense that they were just blindly issuing into weakness The market’s reaction yesterday, $MSTR +12% and $STRC +12% reflects that relief and some shareholders feel that management finally listened and put some guardrails in place. At the same time, there’s still a vocal undercurrent of unease. The authorization to potentially monetize up to (aka sell) $1.25B in Bitcoin has triggered a wave of “Saylor is finally cracking” commentary. Some are calling it the beginning of the end of the pure BTC treasury story, others are more pragmatic. What's resonated strongly: USD Reserve policy - Seeing $2.55B set aside (17.4 months of coverage, with a hard floor at 12 months, and usable only for dividends and interest) felt like a direct answer to months of “what if they can’t pay the preferred dividends?” anxiety. The reserve gives them something concrete to point to when defending the position to themselves or others. Revised STRC dividend policy - Moving it to 12% and making the monthly adjustment mechanism more explicit (with the stated goal of keeping it trading in the $99–$100 range) demonstrates management finally treating the preferreds like the serious credit instruments they’ve been positioning them as. Repurchase authorizations ($1B for Digital Credit Securities and $1B for MSTR common) - Buying back preferreds at a discount reduces the future dividend burden on the common and creating flexiblity to issue when capital is cheap and repurchase when common is cheap makes sense (I can see why some would view monetizing (selling) BTC for this is antithetical to the strategy) Where there's still uneasiness: Even though monetization program is capped, discretionary, and only for specific uses the very existence of the authorization has some investor uneasy because they hate seeing the company give itself permission to sell Bitcoin it bought at higher prices. Trust on the issuance side is not fully restored and there's ambivalence on the value transfer between preferred and common. The higher 12% dividend on STRC, combined with the repurchase priority on preferreds, effectively makes the preferred holders better off while the common takes the leverage and the dilution risk. They need to be careful not to over-rotate toward making the preferreds look "bulletproof" at the expense of making common shareholders feel like they’re carrying all the downside. Over next few months they should re-educate the market on 3 things: - Monetization is a last-resort liquidity tool, not a new operating model - Show the math on how accretive repurchases (especially of preferreds at a discount) actually reduce the long-term burden on common shareholders - Be explicit about issuance discipline going forward

Just a reminder that $MSTR anywhere above an mNAV of 1.0 is the easiest sell out there. Because if you won’t sell, Strategy will. They’ll continue to dilute the common equity as much as possible. The “$1B buyback” program they introduced yesterday was just hollow signaling to try and distract everyone from the fact they sold more than $1.1B of MSTR ATM hidden in the same post last week. It is their preferred method of raising capital vs. selling Bitcoin, which makes sense. They have and will continue to use the common shareholders to pay the preferred dividends and the debt.

Canaccord on $MSTR this morning: "Like an automobile, which drives better in forward gear versus reverse, so does MSTR's BTC acquisition model." True of most things on leverage.

JUST IN: $15 billion investment bank TD Cowen has lowered price target on #Bitcoin treasury company Strategy $MSTR from $400 to $260 and maintains a buy rating. It says the cut is due to a lower BTC forecast, not the company's new capital framework, which it calls "incrementally constructive."