The amount of net new
capital needed to continue Bitcoin’s power law trend ~ t^β grows essentially as the first derivative so ~ t ^ (β-1) or about the 4.7th power of age.
At present age 17.5 that corresponds
to about 30% per annum growth in incremental capital, assuming a consistent multiplier effect.
@ScientificBTC
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Bitcoin likely has another parabolic cycle ahead.
Yes, capital efficiency is declining. In 2011, just $2.7B in net capital inflows drove a 55,536% price increase. This cycle, $697B produced a +689% return.
The next parabolic bull cycle likely requires deeper institutional allocation. Bitcoin needs to be a core macro asset, not just a retail-driven ETF trade.
That shift is still early, not invalidated.
If Bitcoin can absorb $1T+ in realized cap, another parabolic bull run remains on the table.
Gold's market cap is currently $27T.
Good analysis but how did you do over 10 years analysis and predicted bottom if your AC only 3 years old on X ?
My 2026 Bull Run prediction:
June → Bear trap
July → Bitcoin breakout
August → Altcoin season
September → New ATH around $200K
October → Bull trap
November → Liquidation cascade
December → Bear market kicks in
Keep in mind: I’ve called every major market top and bottom for over 10 YEARS.
I was one of the only people who called the top in October, and I’ll do it again, that’s literally my job.
If you still haven’t followed me, you’ll regret it.
Late night thoughts #20
Not diversifying out of Bitcoin continues to look like very bad play here for me.
I mean let’s just say Bitcoin ran up a 8x, and you start putting money in other things besides 126k Bitcoin. Let’s use $VTI for example.
That VTI is now up 30% and you can rotate it into Bitcoin 50% off if that’s what you really want.
In hindsight it seems like a great way to build more Bitcoin actually.
Rather than buying at highs.
Is this a W take?
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BTCを購入するのに良い時期はいつですか?BTCは今買いでしょうか、売りでしょうか?
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の確率的価格予測(今後24時間)この予測は実験的な技術的成果であり、あくまで参考目的で提供しています。これは投資アドバイスをではありません。現実世界での予期せぬ出来事が市場行動に大きな影響を与える可能性があります。トレーダーは慎重に意思決定を行うべきです。
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