Critiques the report's conclusions, acknowledges project growth, and highlights potential risks.
Just read the @4PillarsResearch piece by @ponyo_fp on @collector_crypt. The data work is solid, the conclusions aren't.
Going through the five concerns and where I think the framing flips:
1) Decreasing margin
On the net margin halving from 11.2% to 5.6%: yes, take rate compressed, but absolute net revenue still roughly doubled in the same period.
They defined a vertical, it got hyped, it got competitive, and they hold something like 75% market share. The race to the bottom on fees and margins is something you have to play when you're the category leader. Their market share tells you they're doing it right.
2) Whale driven user base
Valid concern and nothing new, and the team is the first to admit it. But extreme power-law distribution is sustainable for plenty of businesses, it's not automatically a problem.
What I'll add: the team is very aware. If you knew what they're cooking to expand the user base, you'd be as unconcerned AND hyped as I am.
3) Redemptions are bad for the business
On physical r