I have a slightly different opinion from Mr. Mai.
First, Mr. Mai is correct: previously, both exchange‑backed stablecoins and those partnered with exchanges that are not USDT or USDC have indeed struggled to grow, but I personally think the main reason they haven’t taken off is the lack of acceptance.
From a compliance standpoint, USDT is less compliant than USDC, especially regarding asset backing: more than 20% of its assets are highly volatile, including Bitcoin, even some gold now, and a portion of opaque corporate bonds. Nevertheless, this does not prevent USDT from being the most useful stablecoin in Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East.
The key factor is dollar acceptance. In contrast, Europe and the United States benefit from USDC’s stronger acceptance, higher compliance, and looser monetary controls, which give USDC better liquidity.
For Africa, Latin America and the Middle East, USDT is essentially the dollar. USDT does not pursue strict compliance, so in jurisdictions with monetary controls or a need for dollar circulation, it can replace the local fiat.
In reality, the use of stablecoins within the pure crypto space is decreasing. The range of assets that can be purchased with crypto is very limited; even buying US stocks, the current volume is far behind that of domestic markets in Europe and the US.
Therefore, if stablecoin development relies solely on crypto promotion, USDC may become the ceiling.
The reason I claim a different view is because banks are entering the space.
As I mentioned earlier, the main driver of stablecoins is not crypto adoption but stable acceptance. In some regions, backing is less important because stable acceptance itself acts as backing. Huìwàng (a payment service) is a good example. Of course, when you have both stable acceptance and high‑quality backing, it is even better.
Bank‑issued stablecoins, such as JPMorgan’s deposit‑linked stablecoin, are a case in point.
Banks already have corporate accounts, cross‑border settlement capabilities, payment networks, institutional clients, and real‑world USD inflow/outflow channels. A bank‑issued USD stablecoin or deposit token is not designed for retail speculation; it is meant for enterprises, institutions, brokers, funds, and trading platforms to settle USD on‑chain.
The crucial point is that banks solve the hardest part of stablecoins: acceptance.
Even today, using a stablecoin to settle directly with a bank is inconvenient, but a bank‑issued stablecoin changes that. The larger the multinational bank, the easier it is to provide acceptance across many regions, so bank stablecoins naturally align with the bank’s USD liabilities.
This is no longer a competition on the same tier.
As I said before, USDT focuses on gray‑market dollar circulation, USDC excels in U.S. compliance and the Coinbase ecosystem, and bank stablecoins leverage traditional financial accounts and institutional settlement networks.
Thus I do not believe the future will be limited to only USDT and USDC. In the short term, they are indeed the mainstream, but in the long term, bank stablecoins may carve out their own niches in institutional settlement, cross‑border payments, tokenized assets, on‑chain funds, on‑chain equities, and real‑world asset settlement.
Think of BlackRock, for example.
Moreover, the focus of stablecoins will not forever be retail users; corporations and institutions currently do not have a mandatory need for them.
Consider a multinational corporation moving dollars between countries, a fund subscribing to tokenized US Treasury bonds on‑chain, a broker handling 24‑hour US equity and stablecoin settlement, or an exchange linking USD deposits/withdrawals with on‑chain asset clearing. In these scenarios, bank stablecoins become increasingly attractive.
For institutions, the yield of a stablecoin is not the primary concern; the issues are liquidity in, liquidity out, unstable redemption, and unclear regulatory explanations. That is why the U.S. is eager for clear legislation. Once stablecoins have a solid legal framework, I believe not only banks but also large institutions will launch their own stablecoins.