Bitcoin (BTC)

Crypto Rover @cryptorover says 'There is a high possibility that $60,000 is not a true cycle bottom'. ■ The biggest driver is “Liquidity”. Past major crypto market bottoms have formed when US liquidity started to re‑expand. However, currently US year‑over‑year liquidity growth remains negative. Instead of inflows, capital is being absorbed. In periods of shrinking liquidity, • Crypto assets are sold first • Stocks are also weak • Overall risk assets are heavy This is precisely the situation occurring now. ■ Mayer Multiple Historical bottoms have been below 0.6, but it is currently around 0.67. It is oversold, yet not reaching past extreme levels. ■ Long‑Term Holder Realized Price (LTH Realized Price) Cycle bottoms often form near this level. It is currently about $41,000. The price has not reached there yet. ■ Mining Power Cost It is currently about $57,500. In a bear market it typically drops 15–20%, so the expected lower bound is $45,000–$46,000. ■ Demand Zone $45,000–$50,000 represents, • ETF approval level • August 2024 crash bottom • Large accumulation zone by institutional investors • Whale buying concentration band It is a structural demand band. ■ Specifics of this cycle • ATH updated before the halving (first in history) • Q4 after the halving is weak • Altcoins top out before BTC The market may be “front‑loading expectations”. If so, the bottom could arrive earlier than anticipated. ■ Expected bottom timing Anticipated in August–September. ■ Psychology If BTC enters $45,000–$48,000, Predictions for $30,000 and $20,000 will surge. The psychological structure mirrors November 2022. Conclusion: $60,000 could be a local bottom. The true cycle bottom is below $50,000. The timing of liquidity improvement is key. Watch not the price but the “liquidity transition”.

Michael Saylor’s Strategy stated, “Even if Bitcoin price drops to $8,000, the held assets can fully cover the debt.” Emphasizes “durability” based on an extreme downside scenario. A message to the market about the sustainability of the leveraged strategy. The focus is on capital structure and maturity diversification rather than the price itself. A bullish narrative is evaluated together with financial backing.

Bitcoin's Fear & Greed Index is "8" — Extreme Fear. Current price is $68,634. Market sentiment is fully in risk-avoidance mode. When fear peaks, selling tends to be emotion-driven. However, the bottom is determined by “price” rather than “flow”. At the same time as deepening fear, we want to confirm the recovery of spot demand.

Everyone's watching BlackRock buy Bitcoin. Nobody's watching BlackRock BUILD on XRP Ledger. $500M+ BUIDL fund already integrated. Mastercard running settlement pilots. Franklin Templeton tokenizing loans. The infrastructure play > the ETF play But 90% of crypto Twitter will miss it until it's obvious 🎯

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) financial resilience and debt strategy overview. ■ What is being claimed - Even if Bitcoin price drops from the current ~69,000 USD to 8,000 USD (approximately 88% decline), the held assets can fully cover the debt. - The current balance sheet shows BTC reserve assets of about $49.3 billion. - Net debt is about $6 billion. → Currently BTC assets are roughly 8.3 times net debt. ■ Extreme downside scenario (BTC 8,000 USD) - BTC reserve assets would shrink to roughly $6 billion. - Net debt would also be about $6 billion. → Even then, coverage is possible at a “1.0x” ratio. In other words, it emphasizes durability: “Even in the worst-case scenario, it would not result in default.” ■ Convertible bonds - Maturities and put options are spread between 2027 and 2032. - The plan is to equitize the convertible bonds into equity over the next 3–6 years. - No additional senior debt will be issued. ■ Implication for the market This is not just a bullish message; it is an explanation intended to show investors the “sustainability of the leverage strategy.” There are three key points: 1. A structure that does not collapse immediately even if BTC experiences a massive crash. 2. Time diversification of debt (spread maturities). 3. A future plan to reduce leverage through equity conversion. However, note that a sharp BTC decline could accelerate share dilution (stock conversion), making the balance with shareholder value a focal point. In summary, the message can be seen as moving from a “bullish leverage strategy” to a “phase that demonstrates durability.”

Breaking: Strategy announces its debt strategy. The company disclosed, with supporting materials, that even if Bitcoin falls to $8,000, its owned assets can fully cover the debt. Michael Saylor stated, “We plan to equity‑convert the convertible bonds over the next 3–6 years.” Sustainability of the leverage strategy and redesign of the capital structure. Is it a bullish narrative, or an emphasis on risk management? The market’s focus is how to assess “durability.”

There is enough negative sentiment to sink the Titanic without an iceberg. Or is that how it works? $BTC $ETH $SOL

HISTORY: Satoshi Nakamoto on #Bitcoin at $0, exactly 17 years ago "A lot of people automatically dismiss e-currency as a lost cause because of all the companies that failed since the 1990's. I hope it's obvious that it was only the centrally controlled nature of those systems that doomed them." Legendary 🔥

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